So, now that we crossed the line I recommended democrats don't cross, and the damage is done, well, now we gotta think about what comes next. As such, I'm going to tentatively endorse Harris for president. I have a lot of reasons for this, which I'll get to.
1) The ideology argument
So...I know some people are calling for an open convention, and want it to be chosen from a democratic standpoint, but let's be blunt. There's not gonna be a primary, and if there was, well, I'm pretty sure the American people (well, registered democrats) would choose Harris anyway. No, the nominee is going to be decided by the democratic party itself. Delegates are party insiders, and they're gonna go with an insider.
As such, idk what the progressives (cough, cenk cough) calling for an open convention are thinking. I mean, it sounds nice on paper, but consider this. Harris is the most progressive candidate that these insiders will allow. And honestly, the anti Harris movement within the democratic party, if it forms, is going to not be progressives, it's going to be CENTRISTS. This is what AOC was kinda hinting at in her livestream. That "they" want to remove the whole ticket and push a corporate candidate. Keep in mind, republicans aren't the only guys with their own project 2025. The third way has their own plan to full the white house and executive branch with moderates, purging the progressives that Biden brought on board to appease the Bernie people. And the centrists will likely abandon all progressive measures and olive branches Biden offered us in order to go back to full on centrism.
An open convention is a TRAP. It will allow for the dems to put forward some centrist democrat like Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, or maybe, at best, Gretchen Whitmer. Basically, they're gonna go full corporate dem. Harris is the most progressive candidate that the DNC will allow. She's basically the one who pioneered Biden's electoral ideology, being a bridge between mainstream centrist dems and progressive dems. Given the progressive wing isn't in a position to ask for more, Harris is as far left as the overton window gets. And I suggest we take the deal. It would be largely a continuation of Biden policies, and maybe some more.
2) The policy argument
So, let's discuss some of Harris's 2020 policies. Like the LIFT act. Which when you think about it, is like a mini UBI. It's not perfect, it's not actually UBI but a tax credit tied to work, but you know what? It would kind of help bring us closer to it.
Second healthcare. Her healthcare plan is basically similar to my endorsed medicare extra for all plan. Guys, this is the best healthcare plan America's getting that isn't full on single payer. This BASED!
And then third, well, let's face it, she's probably gonna continue to embrace Biden's agenda.
On the environment she actually was an early cosponsor of the green new deal. At the very least she'll probably embrace a continuation of build back better.
On free college she supports free four year college and was at least as good as Biden on student debt forgiveness. Not perfect, but we're not getting perfect this time.
But yeah. I would say Harris is MORE progressive than Biden. She's THE progressive option this time. Back her. We're not getting better than this, and she's probably gonna do wanna do everything Biden did and more.
Again, Harris? Or corporate centrist. You choice guys. I say we take the deal with Harris.
3) The electability argument
While we're still early in the electability stage of the argument, let me present to you a new chart I've been working on today:
So, we're at a stage where we have not much data on any candidate. BUT, I did devise a stopgap measure where I took the popular vote, added +2 points to Trump to account for the electoral college advantage republicans have, and calculated probabilities from there. I think this will get us CLOSE to the true odds of any candidate in question.
With Harris, we get 16.5% with her being 3.9% down, in reality she's 4 points down and has a 15.9% chance. Biden was 3 points down, this gives him an estimated margin of 5 and a 10.6% chance, he was at 4.5 as of dropping out with a 13.0% chance. But keep in mind, he also, not long before this, was at like a 5.1-5.2% margin, with a 9.7% chance of winning. So we're once again in the ballpark.
Newsom's numbers are terrible, he's down by 15 points with a 0.001% chance of winning, although that's based on old data, popular vote has him at a 11.5% chance.
Whitmer has less name recognition and is even lower. And I'd expect most alternatives who i have no polling on to be around whitmer level.
So....Kamala ftw? I mean, let's face it, I still think Biden was the best shot if he could've been given enough time to recover from the age thing, but Harris is shaping up to be plan B. And now that we need Plan B activated, well, I'm going with Harris.
4) She's the most likely to avoid legal trouble
So AOC is right. Who can inherit Biden's war chest? Only Harris can. Who is already technically on the ballot? Harris is. We dont want Clarence Thomas choosing the president again. We had that happen once and it was a disaster. This is the safest option we can pick.
5) She's most qualified for the job
She's VP. She's the person who takes over the second an 81 year old nursing home escapee dies. She is prepared to take over at any moment. She's been preparing for this job and she has the experience advantage over the alternatives.
Conclusion
All opinions here are subject to change as the race develops. But yeah, I actually am for just coronating Harris here. It would best serve my own political interests in terms of my policy and ideological goals, and honestly, she has the best shot of winning anyway. So let's do this. Time to join the K hive.
About previous "DEI" comments
And because I know some idiot is gonna try to weaponize my "DEI candidate" rhetoric against me at some point, I'm just gonna say it.
I don't support Harris on the basis of race or gender. I also don't like the idea of pushing Harris because she's a black woman. I support her because she's objectively the best person for the job right now. This is a 100% merit based decision for me. In terms of policy, she's the best we progressives are gonna get. In terms of electability, she's the candidate with the highest odds of winning as of writing this. She's also currently VP and whatever I think about Biden choosing her in 2020, in 2024, she is best poised to take over for Biden now that he's dropping out. As such, there really isn't any good argument against her.
And keep in mind, calls for an "open convention" are just gonna have her running against more corporate candidates who are more centrist and friendly to the donors. Make no mistake. Harris IS the progressive option this time around. So let's get this done.
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