So, I just wanted to get some thoughts out there on this Biden thing, having listened to opinions all throughout the day.
The debate
I do think people are exaggerating Biden's poor debate performance. Yes, he did terrible. HOWEVER, you guys are insane if you think Trump won. The debate was a dumpster fire between both candidates, but as someone I know said, would you rather have someone who tells the truth poorly or who lies very well? Sadly much of the American people choose the latter, but that's the reason, if anything, i think the American people are stupid. It doesn't mean that's the right decision. it's the wrong decision.
I listened to the debate. And then I listened to parts of it again with RFK involved. Yes. Biden has his "senior moments", but of the two hour debate, he didn't do as bad as people are making him out to be. He wasn't great but he wasn't terrible either. He was just okay.
I do get the optics though. I could tell when he got out there that he had a frog in his throat. he wasn't communicating super well. Still, I watched the debate while talking to several friends online who were also watching it and most of them were more focused on Trump lying and giving us word salads than Biden's tone. I admit I was thinking "oh man this isn't good" as he was malfunctioning. And he did have some really cringey moments. But he did kind of win by default. Trump LOOKED a bit better until you listened to anything he said. He was incoherent, all over the place, not answering questions, just going on weird ramblings and word salads. He was basically gish galloping the whole time. Biden was at least substantive. Not as strong as he needed to be, especially at first, but eh....he was ok. He looked worse than he actually was if you listened to the content of what he was saying. And yes yes, he flubbed with the "beating medicare" thing. He lost his train of thought mid sentence. i'm in my 30s and I'm guilty of doing that. it's entirely embarrassing to do that on camera in front of millions, but it happens.
Biden's mental competence
Regardless, I do want to say that I do think the questions of Biden's mental acuity are legitimate. This isn't just a one off thing. Biden has looked bad to me for months now. Whenever he gives a public appearance, I cringe. He looks so weak, frail, and tired. Some said he's with it between 10 AM and 4 PM, and outside of those hours he gets worse, i know older people tend to do that. But here's the thing, being president is a 24 hour job. We can't just expect Russia to wait until 10 AM eastern time to invade Poland. Remember Hillary Clinton and those 3 AM commercials back in the day? Yeah. You need to be someone who can make critical decisions at 3 AM if needed. The world isn't gonna wait for Biden to be with it. He needs to be up to the job.
If Biden is sundowning, or experiencing cognitive decline, we need to know, and he needs to step aside. Heck, I think both Biden and Trump should take a mental competence test, with the results published publicly. It should be like an SAT, with an impartial proctor, both taking it in the same room at the same time, and then they hand in their results when they're done and they're graded and published. I would LOVE to see that at this point. Because honestly, i think both of them are in mental decline at this point.
Replacing Biden is still risky
Still, at the same time, I'm looking at this through a lens of electability. Replacing Biden is risky. There's a reason I've been reluctant to do it. It's because if we do, we could end up with someone far less electable at the helm. Recent polling has kind of broken that a little bit for me, but the old polling is still out there and still makes me reluctant to replace Biden. It's like doing risky back surgery. It could work, or it could leave you paralyzed for life. Not worth the risk unless you have to.
I will say this. The first round of polling I'm seeing post debate isn't good. We got a New Hampshire poll being Trump +2 today. We had NH at Biden +5.3% in my last update. This dropped it down to just +3. NH is now "lean Biden", not "likely Biden." We have a new Trump +4 poll out of Pennsylvania. That's not outside of the realm of possibility, we were at Trump +2.8, but now it's Trump +3.
But let's face it, everyone seems to want Biden gone, but they don't seem to agree on what a replacement will look like. This is, in part, because the dems did, indeed, dig us into a hole where every placement is just another uninspiring dittohead who offers roughly the same policy package as Biden (or worse), and given the nature of congress they'd be unlikely to pass anything anyway. Keep in mind, Biden's age isn't the only problem. people are souring on dems over inflation and immigration, as well as their apparent lack of action thanks to congress stonewalling everything. Not to mention the supreme court being nuts with it being 6/3 conservatives.
Who should replace Biden?
In my heart of hearts, I'd probably throw someone in there like Yang or Turner or even Phillips. But we all know this ain't gonna happen, as the dems don't allow anyone who isnt an establishment approved dittohead. Bernie is too old. He ain't even an option these days. He's older than Biden. He looks better and more with it than biden, but he's literally older than Biden.
Of the corporate approved options, Harris, Newsom, and Whitmer are best. I admit i kinda got the impression Whitmer was a corporate dem at my first pass looking at her policies, but I looked at her again and she seems okay. I mean she actually does support M4A on a federal level so that's something. If anything, between that and her being from Michigan, she's a top choice of the corporate approved options honestly.
Harris and Newsom are also decent but lack electability. Harris is just unpopular, and Newsom has too much baggage from his governorship of California.
Beyond that, the choices go downhill. Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, JB Pritzker, and Andy Beshear are all names I've heard floated, and I honestly was gonna rate ALL of these options but gave us as grading them was so tediously boring as they all sound the same and blend together after a while. Seriously. The dems have virtually no ideological diversity. You could put ANY of them in and they'd all be the same. The three above options are the only unique and more progressive ones. This is because, again, the dems are a corporate oligarchy that actively sabotages any diverging viewpoints or candidates. Is it any wonder why these guys all sound roughly the same? NO! It's because they functionally are the same. Anyone who is unique or interesting or who thinks different isn't really welcome in the party. And that's also why the dems kinda suck. Imagine if the GOP just kept giving us Mitt Romney clones every election. The GOP would be screwed and they'd STILL be screwed. And this is what the GOP went into 2016 with. The people in the GOP chose trump for a reason. They had like 15 jeb bush clones in there. Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, etc. They chose Trump for a reason. Because the people wanted someone different.And unlike the dems, the GOP let them have it, for better or for worse.
But the dems kill their "Donald Trumps". Bernie Sanders, Andrew yang, Marianne Williamson, Dean Phillips, etc. Anyone who has any unique ideas and doesn't fit a certain mold just isn't welcome. This is why the dems are in such a bad state. It's not that the democrats have nothing to offer, it's that they have nothing to offer, because they keep putting their thumb on the scale to achieve the result that they want.
So should the dems replace Biden after all?
Heck, thinking that through, should the dems replace Biden? Only if they have to. Biden stepping aside might be like LBJ stepping aside in 1968. Who did we get? Hubert Humphrey. Someone no one liked. Because the people themselves didn't choose them. Because the dems foisted them on the populace and the people didn't like it. The dems have a long history of doing this.
It's why they end up sucking so hard. And I'm kind of afraid they dug us into a ditch by not giving us a legitimate open primary earlier this year. And now if Biden DOES step aside, it's throw in some loyal person waiting their turn and hope it works out, but given the mood of the country, it probably won't.
Honestly, I would say tough it out with Biden IF he is up to the task, and if the polling numbers dont crater too much. Reminder: when I looked at Harris last october, I had her at a 16% shot while Biden had a 31% shot. I would say if Biden's numbers drop to the equivalent of that, which would require a tipping point of 4 points or higher in trump's favor (PA is currently at 3), then yeah, DEFINITELY replace Biden by that point. But otherwise? Idk. As crappy as Biden's chances are, replacing him actually sounds like a horrible idea. Maybe it'll work, but maybe it'll just seal the dems' fate. Who knows.
I don't know
That's really where I'm at right now. I don't know. Replacing Biden is bad, but staying with him is also bad. The situation is just bad. The dems really screwed us this election cycle, and it's starting to feel like 1968, 1980, and 2016 all at once. None of those were good years to be a democrat. I'll just say, I'll go with the decision that is best supported by the evidence at the time. The dem convention isnt until August. We have a month. And by then, we'll also know what's going on with Trump as well, as the GOP convention is in 2 weeks, right after Trump's sentencing.
Let's let the data play out for now and run as many contingency plans as we can to figure out what sticks. We don't have to make a decision right now. But we do have to know what we're doing in a month. So this is going to be an interesting July to say the least. This really is the most F-ed up election season of my lifetime so far. The GOP candidate is a felon and authoritarian psychopath. The dem candidate is an old guy who is seemingly asleep at the wheel. It's actually really bad for us. Very high stakes, and we're just failing in the moment. What can I say? We're failing in the moment when we need our crap together most. Not a good position to be in. Ugh.
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