So....realclearpolling is finally posting aggregates for candidates other than Biden again, and we're getting a decent look at what the polls look like for the alternatives to Biden. And this is what we've come up with.
Yes, this is all/mostly new data from post debate btw.
So Biden's at -3.3%, and not shown here, the tipping is Nevada at 5.2% Trump.
We have the 5 way race between Trump, Biden, West, Stein, and RFK at -4.8%. The others are two way though, so should most be compared to the -3.3% score.
So Harris is very close at -3.6%. It's practically for all intents and purposes. Not better, just a tiny bit worse, but yeah, pretty close.
Newsom is a 1.5% drop, and Whitmer is a 2.2% drop. So...maybe Whitmer aint as good of an idea as that one internal poll indicated. Neither is Newsom. How this would manifest on a state level is unclear. Despite Biden doing worse in the 5 way, due to the relative lack of polling of 5 way on the state level, Biden can do anywhere from just as good to 4 points worse, with the tipping point evening out around the same place. It's one of the reasons I havent bothered with 5 way yet. It's not actually telling me anything and I'd take more 2 way data over more intermittant 5 way data.
But yeah, let's assume it does translate directly. Let's bring up the most recent data for my election predictions. This isn't a formal prediction, but it's the same chart I'd be using if I did, so let's look at how this could translate on the state level.
So, the tipping is currently Nevada at 5.2%, which gives Biden a 9.7% chance.
If we shifted this 0.3% to the right, which is what Harris would do, not much would change. We would likely be in just about the same situation. Technically, Harris's odds would drop to 8.5%. Now, is there a big difference between 8.5% and 9.7%? In the grand scheme of things, not really, but again, my metric for replacing Biden is to be BETTER than Biden, and Harris doesn't currently match that.
Newsom, let's assume a 1.5% shift right. Nevada would be up to 6.7%, PA at 6.8%, aaaand our odds drop to 4.7%.
And finally, let's do Whitmer. A 2.2% shift would bring the tipping point to 7.4%. At this point, we're talking a 3.2% chance.
So, Harris would mildly drop our odds, Newsom would cut them in half, and Whitmer would cut them by 2/3s. That's basically where we're at.
It should also be noted that Newsom and Whitmer have polling decifits large enough to potentially cost us Maine, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire. THOSE ARE IN PLAY!
Now to be fair, for Newsom and Whitmer at least, name recognition could be part of the issue as both sides had more undecideds in that case, but I still wouldn't roll the dice on that. With Harris, she seems just as well known as Biden and the numbers are what they are.
Stick with Biden, if this the case. It sucks that our candidate is a 82 year old guy with possible dementia, but my core metric for replacing him is electability, and the alternatives haven't proven themselves to be more electable yet. We'll have to see how this develops. As I said, we should make this decisions by August, but the case for replacing Biden isn't looking good right now.
And if we DO replace Biden, it should probably be Harris. She's the only one who does about as well as Biden.
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